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NEW QUESTION: 1
Nigel Holmes, CFA, is an investment manager for a small money management firm in London. All of Holmes' clients are citizens of the U.K. Holmes urges all of his clients to maintain internationally diversified portfolios. In his efforts to find undervalued securities, he is currently analyzing a Canadian company called Slapshot, Inc. Slapshot produces hockey equipment at its Canadian manufacturing facilities. About 85% of Slapshot's sales are to the U.S. market, and the remainder are domestic (i.e., in Canada). Sales have been growing at 12% per year. Last year's sales were C$68,000,000. Holmes has gathered the following market information (inflation is perfectly predictable):
* £/$ spot exchange rate = 0.8
* £/C$ spot exchange rate = 0.4
* U.K. risk-free rate = 6%
* U.K. expected inflation rate = 4%
* Canadian risk-free rate = 9%
* Canadian expected inflation rate = 7%
* U.S. risk-free rate = 4%
* U.S. expected inflation = 2%
Holmes uses the international CAPM (ICAPM) to value international investments. For Slapshot, Holmes believes that the stock's returns are sensitive to the £/C$ exchange rate. In order to apply the model, he estimates the following parameters using the £ as the base currency:
* World market risk premium = 6%
* Sensitivity of Slapshot to the world market = 1.2
* Sensitivity of Slapshot to changes in the £/C$ exchange rate = 1.4
* Holmes' expectation for the depreciation of the C$ against the £ = 2%
* The ratio of the price of the U.K. consumption basket to the Canadian consumption basket is 0.3.
Holmes adds Slapshot stock to several client portfolios at a purchase price of C$ 100. One year later, the stock is trading at C$ 122. There were no dividend payments during the year.
Consider the current U.S. dollar to C$ ($/C$) spot exchange rate. Suppose that after one year, the nominal spot $/C$ exchange rate is 0.350. The most likely impact on Slapshot's valuation from the $/C$ exchange rate change is the:
A. C$ has depreciated in real terms, and the firm will be more competitive in the U.S. market, leading to a higher valuation.
B. C$ has appreciated in real terms, and the firm will be less competitive in the U.S. market, leading to a lower valuation.
C. value of the C$ has not changed in real terms, so there should be no real impact on the firm's valuation.
Since the beginning-of-period $/C$ spot exchange rate is not given directly, we must calculate it from the
£/$ and £/C$ quotes. Dividing £/C$ by £/$ gives a rate for the $/C$ exchange rate of 0.5. Next we need to determine whether there was any real change in the exchange rate during the year. Inflation in the United States is 2%, and inflation in Canada is 7% (remember that inflation is perfectly predictable). The 5% inflation differential means that to maintain parity, the C$ must depreciate by 5%. If the C$ depreciates by
5%, the new exchange rate would be 0.5(1 - 0.05) = 0.475. Since the end-of-period rate is less than what was expected given the inflation differential, the real value of the C$ has decreased. Hence, the firm should have a higher value because it is primarily an exporter, and exporters are helped by real domestic currency depreciation. (Study Session 18, LOS 66.e,m)